Daily Options Scenario
Daily Options Scenario #76
One real SPX session from the trainer’s five-year history, dates masked. Below: the last 50 daily candles into the entry, the volatility and trend read at the close, and the four defined-risk verticals that were actually priced there (1 contract, ×100 multiplier, historical option quotes) — all expiring in 2 DTE. Pick your play, then reveal what the tape did.
This board: a tape leaning up, options still charging for trouble, though the charge is easing, 2 sessions on the clock, and fomc decision 2 sessions out. Form your own read before the table’s prices argue theirs.
Your five choices
| Choice | Strikes | Entry | Max profit | Max loss | Breakeven |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull put credit spread | 4,515 / 4,490 | +$91.25 credit | $91.25 | $2,408.75 | above 4,514.1 |
| Bear call credit spread | 4,660 / 4,675 | +$121.25 credit | $121.25 | $1,378.75 | below 4,661.2 |
| Bull call debit spread | 4,660 / 4,595 | −$2,823.75 debit | $3,676.25 | $2,823.75 | above 4,623.2 |
| Bear put debit spread | 4,515 / 4,620 | −$2,903.75 debit | $7,596.25 | $2,903.75 | below 4,591.0 |
| No trade — stand aside | — | — | — | — | — |
Tap a row to lock in your play — it gets scored against the whole board.
Reveal what happened
Over the next 2 sessions SPX rose 1.26% from 4603 to settle at 4660.57. VIX went from 16.3 to 15.1. The hold high of 4663 traded through the 4660 short call strike. FOMC rate decision landed during the hold.
| Choice | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Bull put credit spread | WIN | +$89.95 |
| Bear call credit spread | WIN | +$62.95 |
| Bull call debit spread | WIN | +$3,674.95 |
| Bear put debit spread | LOSS | −$2,905.05 |
| No trade — stand aside | stood aside | $0.00 |
- put_credit REDUCED (+0.50): mixed signal: SPX +0.8% over 5 sessions but VIX +5.4% — the tape and vol disagree, and neither side is being paid (-0.25); SPX trend UP (5d +0.8%, 20d +7.0%) (+0.75); VIX 16.3 is elevated: sellers are paid more, buyers pay up (+0.50); FOMC rate decision prints inside the 2-day hold window (-0.50)
- call_credit AVOID (-2.25): SPX trend UP (5d +0.8%, 20d +7.0%) (-1.50); VIX 16.3 is elevated: sellers are paid more, buyers pay up (+0.50); short calls sell the side with no ceiling, against an underlying that drifts up over time — this structure was the weakest in the book across every regime (-0.75); FOMC rate decision prints inside the 2-day hold window (-0.50)
Keep playing
Playbook Trainer is an educational game built on historical market data. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Options involve substantial risk; defined-risk spreads can lose their full maximum loss. Scenario dates are masked, and prices reflect historical option quotes with simplified fills.